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How many diapers are required every day to satisfy the world consumption?
There are
several statistical models that have been used to estimate the number of
baby diapers required for the whole world. My model starts
with world population projection from the U.S. Census Bureau which
estimates world population at 6,431,662652 (2006). Then you find the
total number of babies in the age group of 0-2 years, using age pyramid
tables. Then you calculate total diaper consumption for each
diaper stage and estimate a representative consumption per baby per day
(the Absormex data base was an initial
source); and finally, take into account market penetration, the most
difficult part to forecast. The number of babies in the 0-2 age group
in the United States is 9,612,520 (4/19/2006 U.S. Census); each baby in
the 0-2 age group requires, on an average, 4.42 disposable diapers every
day - 6.82 are needed for newborns (size 2) while only 3.74 are needed
for two year olds (size 5 and 6 with non linearity). This means that 40.37
million diapers are required every day in the United States alone.
There are variations to consumption patterns. For example, in Japan, mothers
are more concerned about hygiene and use almost two and a half more diapers per day
than mothers in America do, and Americans use at least one more diaper
per day than Latino Americans do. If we estimate the total world
consumption on this basis, it translates into 1,375 million diapers
every day – i.e. if every baby in the world uses a disposable diaper.
In summary:
In the United States alone, 467 diapers
are used every single second (with market penetration estimated at
95.6%; only 4.4% babies use the old non disposable kind). Considering a
typical weight of 45 grams per diaper, that means 1,816 tons of diapers
are used every day in the U.S. alone.
For the whole world, 18,238 diapers are
needed every second, if we go by the theoretical calculation.
Unfortunately, in reality, world consumption is less than one quarter of
this because of poverty in a large part of the world where market
penetration of disposable diapers is low. Many areas of the
world have market penetrations of less than 2%. More than
one third of the babies in this world have never used a disposable
diaper! For more specific data for the 75 largest countries
in the world, please visit: Diapers Required per country. If you
need figures of diaper demand in a country not listed, just let me
know. I have updated information for diaper consumption for 2005 and
diaper demand estimates as far as 2025. You can read
about the current and future need for diapers in different regions of
the world in my last paper presented at the Insight Conference in
Minneapolis in October 2005 :
The
future of the diaper industry (word document 1.2 MB)
Another excellent article can be found here:
Insight 2006. You can also read Mr. Richer's latest article
published in the Nonwoven Industry
Magazine January 2007 edition using this link:
click here
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